
![h ensemble typhoon routes 5. Simple statistical downscaling with multi-scale GCM output
The Hydrologic Cycle and Watershed
How do Hydrological Predictions Work?
dS/dt = P – E – R
dS/dt P E : storage changes per time step [mm h-1]
R
: precipitation [mm h-1] : evaporation [mm h-1] : discharge [mm h-1]
Hydrologic Analysis for WRM and FRM
”How much water is there at where and when?”
Source: http://unit.aist.go.jp/georesenv/gwrg/ken-eng.html
Hydrologic Analysis for WRM and FRM
”How much water is there at where and when?”
14: 22
14: 36
14: 40
14: 44
Heading to adaptation
Worst case scenario Survivability Critical, edge of Survivability
There is high uncertainty in projected design value
Projected design value
It is almost certain that average of design value would increase.
Design value as return value
Range for disaster prevention
MRI-AGCM20km
• Spatial Resolution
1920×960 grid cells (20 km) with 60 vertical levels (TL959L60)
• Temporal Resolution
Hourly precipitation with other daily variables
• SST Boundary Condition
Observed HadISST1 dataset for controlled run Ensemble Mean of CMIP3 A1B scenario for projection run
• A1B scenario of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
2.5˚temperature increase and 720 ppm of CO2 concentration by 2100
Research Concepts
1. Data Evaluation
2. Simulation AMeDAS Observation Hydrologic Model (Calibration) Compare to validate
Compare to validate
AGCM20 (Present)
AGCM20 (Future)
Hydrologic Model (Simulation) Simulated Discharge Discharge (Future h ensemble typhoon routes 5. Simple statistical downscaling with multi-scale GCM output
The Hydrologic Cycle and Watershed
How do Hydrological Predictions Work?
dS/dt = P – E – R
dS/dt P E : storage changes per time step [mm h-1]
R
: precipitation [mm h-1] : evaporation [mm h-1] : discharge [mm h-1]
Hydrologic Analysis for WRM and FRM
”How much water is there at where and when?”
Source: http://unit.aist.go.jp/georesenv/gwrg/ken-eng.html
Hydrologic Analysis for WRM and FRM
”How much water is there at where and when?”
14: 22
14: 36
14: 40
14: 44
Heading to adaptation
Worst case scenario Survivability Critical, edge of Survivability
There is high uncertainty in projected design value
Projected design value
It is almost certain that average of design value would increase.
Design value as return value
Range for disaster prevention
MRI-AGCM20km
• Spatial Resolution
1920×960 grid cells (20 km) with 60 vertical levels (TL959L60)
• Temporal Resolution
Hourly precipitation with other daily variables
• SST Boundary Condition
Observed HadISST1 dataset for controlled run Ensemble Mean of CMIP3 A1B scenario for projection run
• A1B scenario of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
2.5˚temperature increase and 720 ppm of CO2 concentration by 2100
Research Concepts
1. Data Evaluation
2. Simulation AMeDAS Observation Hydrologic Model (Calibration) Compare to validate
Compare to validate
AGCM20 (Present)
AGCM20 (Future)
Hydrologic Model (Simulation) Simulated Discharge Discharge (Future](/image.do?type=idas&timeFile=/asset/2012/11/05/DOC/PREVIEW/04201211050122785033661.jpg)
Title |
Climate change impacts on water resources and flood risk
Similar Titles
|
---|---|
Material Type | Proceeding |
Author(English) |
Kim, Sunmin |
Publisher |
Japan : Kyoto University |
Date | 2012-06 |
Event |
2012 Climate Prediction and Application Training |
Event |
[Workshop] 2012 Climate Prediction and Application Training Program for Green Growth in Developing Countries
|
Series Title; No | 2012 Climate Prediction and Application Training |
Pages | 64 |
Language | English |
File Type | Documents |
Original Format | |
Subject | Territorial Development < Environment |
Holding | APEC Climate Center |
Recipient Country | Indonesia(Asia and Pacific) Cambodia(Asia and Pacific) Mongolia(Asia and Pacific) Philippines(Asia and Pacific) Thailand(Asia and Pacific) Vietnam(Asia and Pacific) |
Organizer | APEC climate center |
Venue | APEC climate center |
Program Type | Workshop |
Project Term | 2012-06-04 ~ 2012-06-15 |
License | ![]() |
Abstract
Resources
Introduction to APEC climate center Yoo, Jin-Ho / 2012-06 / [Busan] : APEC Climate Center
Introduction to green growth : Promoting a new paradigm of economic growth and environmental sustainability Kwon, Seijoong / 2012-06 / [Seoul] : Global Green Growth Institute
Adaption to climate change Chae, Yeora / 2012-06 / [Seoul] : Korea Environment Institute
Climate change impact assessment on agricultural water resources Choi, Jin-Yong / 2012-06 / [Seoul] : Seoul National University
Planet under pressure from anthropocene to global sustainability Kim, Joon / 2012-06 / [Seoul] : Seoul National University
The socio-economic use of improved weather and climate information Lim, Dongsoon / 2012-06 / [Busan] : Dong-Eui University
El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and climate change Yeh, Sang-Wook / 2012-06 / [Seoul] : Hanyang University
Intraseasonal variability and predictability : Monsoon and intraseasonal variability Kim, Hye-Mi / 2012-06 / [USA] : Georgia Institute of Technology
Intraseasonal variability and predictability : ISV, MJP predictability Kim, Hye-Mi / 2012-06 / [USA] : Georgia Institute of Technology
Introduction to seasonal prediction Yoo, Jin Ho / 2012-06 / [Busan] : APEC climate center
Dynamical seasonal predicability Yoo, Jin Ho / 2012-06 / [Busan] : APEC climate center
Assessment of ENSO impacts : Korea for example Kug, Jong-Seong / 2012-06 / [Kyeonggi] : Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute
Climate-ocean biology interaction Kug, Jong-Seong / 2012-06 / [Kyeonggi] : Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute
Climate modeling and its recent advances Lee, Myong-In / 2012-06 / [Ulsan] : Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technoligy
Program schedule APEC Climate Center / 2012-06 / [Busan]
Dynamic and thermodynamic worldviews : Life, earth, and beyond Kim, Joon / 2012-06 / [Seoul] : APEC Climate Center