We analyze and assess the risk of Korean households' indebtedness based on credit bureau(CB) data. In particular, obligers' credit risk is stress-tested while the size and characteristics of vulnerable obligers are identified in this micro-level analysis.
The present study shows that the share of the overly-indebted has increased while households' risk-adjustment processes at the micro-level have weakened since the global financial crisis in 2008. This result implies that credit risks of the indebted households have increased so that the household sector has become less resilient to external shocks during the period. In particular, the overly-indebted, the obligers from multiple nonbank financial institutions and the self-employed borrowers seem vulnerable so that their overall picture and characteristics are analyzed and documented in this study. In addition, there are a relatively large number of vulnerable obligers belonging to the brackets of low income and low credit worthiness so that social issues such as rising delinquencies may arise if the overall economic conditions suddenly deteriorated due to unexpected shocks for example. Nevertheless, it is not very likely for financial stability to be heavily damaged because the amount of personal loans held by the risky obligers are relatively small compared with the total amount of household debt.
There is a rising concern that personal loans may be exposed to higher risks as the GDP growth rates slow down while the global economy remains uncertain. The assessment of the impact of stress scenarios corresponding to the 2008 global financial crisis on the delinquencies shows that the nonbank borrowers, the self-employed and the indebted from multiple nonbank financial institutions could be financially distressed if the overall economic conditions were suddenly worsened. In addition, the credit risks of personal loans could be heightened due to supply side factors or financial market conditions if macroeconomic conditions suddenly change even without increases in the debt-servicing burden of households.
The results of the present research may contribute to understanding the risk structure of household indebtedness and designing policy directions for financial as well as social stability.
우리나라 가계부채의 주요 현황과 위험도 평가(Risk assessment of Korean households’ indebtedness)
차주단위 자료를 중심으로(Evidence from CB Data)
서울 : 한국개발연구원
|Series Title; No||정책연구시리즈 / 2012-06|
|Subject Country||South Korea(Asia and Pacific)|
|Subject||Economy < Financial Policy|