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Growth slowdowns redux : New evidence on the middle-income trap

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Frame of Image eyes are on China
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Eichengreen, Park and Shin (2012) analyze the international historical experience of growth slowdowns up to 2007 to shed light on future growth prospects → based on PWT 6.3
Ø Slowdowns occurred at a mean per capita GDP of USD 16,540 in 2005 constant US dollars at PPP, median of USD 15,085 Ø China’s figure was USD 8,511 in 2007
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Correlates of growth slowdowns
Ø High growth in earlier period Ø Unfavorable demographics Ø Ver y high investment rates Ø Under valued exchange rates
1 Introduction
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In this paper, we re-visit these questions
Ø Concerns about slows continue to grow, even for China Ø More and better data → updated through 2010 Ø Additional determinants of growth slowdowns – level and structure of human capital, level and structure of exports, financial and political stability, and external shocks
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Our new results are broadly consistent with our old results
Ø Growth still slows down in the USD 15,000 range Ø But we find additional slowdown mode at around USD 11,000
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Some interesting new findings
Ø High quality human capital reduces probability of slowdowns Ø High-tech exports reduce probability of slowdowns Ø Less robustly, financial crisis and political regime increase probability of slowdowns
1 Introduction
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Outline of presentation
Ø Data and methodology Ø New list of slowdowns and comparison with old list Ø Correlates Ø Regression analysis Ø Concluding observations
2 Data and methodology
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Table 1. Old and New Slowdown Episodes
Year Country Pe


Full Text
Title Growth slowdowns redux
Similar Titles
Sub Title

New evidence on the middle-income trap

Material Type Proceedings
Author(English)

Eichengreen, Barry; Park, Donghyun; Shin, Kwanho

Author(Korean)

신관호; 박동현

Publisher

[Seoul]:Korea University

Date 2013-08
Pages 44
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language English
File Type Documents
Original Format pdf
Subject Economy < Financial Policy
Holding KDI; KDI School