콘텐츠 바로가기
로그인
컨텐츠
  • HOME
  • SEARCH
PLUS Text Size MINUS RESET
FACEBOOK TWITTER Linked In

Category Open

Resources

tutorial

Collection of research papers and materials on development issues

home

Resources
Economy Financial Policy

Print

Growth slowdowns redux : New evidence on the middle-income trap

Related Document
Frame of Image eyes are on China
—
Eichengreen, Park and Shin (2012) analyze the international historical experience of growth slowdowns up to 2007 to shed light on future growth prospects → based on PWT 6.3
Ø Slowdowns occurred at a mean per capita GDP of USD 16,540 in 2005 constant US dollars at PPP, median of USD 15,085 Ø China’s figure was USD 8,511 in 2007
—
Correlates of growth slowdowns
Ø High growth in earlier period Ø Unfavorable demographics Ø Ver y high investment rates Ø Under valued exchange rates
1 Introduction
—
In this paper, we re-visit these questions
Ø Concerns about slows continue to grow, even for China Ø More and better data → updated through 2010 Ø Additional determinants of growth slowdowns – level and structure of human capital, level and structure of exports, financial and political stability, and external shocks
—
Our new results are broadly consistent with our old results
Ø Growth still slows down in the USD 15,000 range Ø But we find additional slowdown mode at around USD 11,000
—
Some interesting new findings
Ø High quality human capital reduces probability of slowdowns Ø High-tech exports reduce probability of slowdowns Ø Less robustly, financial crisis and political regime increase probability of slowdowns
1 Introduction
—
Outline of presentation
Ø Data and methodology Ø New list of slowdowns and comparison with old list Ø Correlates Ø Regression analysis Ø Concluding observations
2 Data and methodology
—
Table 1. Old and New Slowdown Episodes
Year Country Pe


Full Text
Title Growth slowdowns redux
Similar Titles
Sub Title

New evidence on the middle-income trap

Material Type Proceedings
Author(English)

Eichengreen, Barry; Park, Donghyun; Shin, Kwanho

Author(Korean)

신관호; 박동현

Publisher

[Seoul] : Korea University

Date 2013-08
Event [Conference] Fiscal Sustainability and Innovative Welfare System
Pages 44
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language English
File Type Documents
Original Format pdf
Subject Economy < Financial Policy
Holding KDI; KDI School
License