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철강경기의 측정분석과 예측모형(Study of the measurement and analysis, and the prediction models for the steel industry) : Micro approach method

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Title 철강경기의 측정분석과 예측모형(Study of the measurement and analysis, and the prediction models for the steel industry)
Similar Titles
Sub Title

Micro approach method

Material Type Reports
Author(Korean)

김윤형; 성절용; 김병목; 조은구; 문희성

Publisher

[Seoul]:Korea Development Institute

Date 1975
Pages 580
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language Korean
File Type Documents
Original Format pdf
Subject Economy < Economic Administration
Industry and Technology < Manufacturing
Holding KDI; KDI School

Abstract

This study seeks to examine the conditions of the steel industry since its initiation during the Japanese colonialization, throughout Korea’s independence, civil war, and until 1976. Based on the observation, the study seeks to measure and analyze the future demand of steel from various approaches, ultimately identifying the future conditions and demand for the industry.
After having the industry established indirectly during the Japanese colonialization, Korea exerted various efforts to revamp the steel industry after gaining independence, establishing the Korea Iron & Steel Company for example. But the effort was to no avail as the civil war broke out shortly after. After the war, efforts to re-develop the industry gained momentum as steel plants were re-opened and repaired while new steel mills were built in Busan. This period in particular, was mainly led by the government with private partnership. As a result, the development during 1970s was very multi-faceted as new steel mills were established in Pohang and the Steel Industry Promotion Act was newly legislated. However, the oil shock crisis affected Korea’s heavy chemical industry as it swept across the global market. As a response, the need to come up with a stable development roadmap of the steel industry, a national industry, greatly rose.
The demand for steel materials in general, is measured through the micro approach method. The Fourth Stage of the Five-Year Economic Plan was devised with the same approach, but questions regarding the accuracy of the approach in measuring steel demand remain. As a response, the rolling planning method and indicative planning method are also suitable approaches in measuring steel demand. Among the methods, the rolling planning method bears more freedom in terms of conducting a demand prediction for the steel industry.
The steel industry is an industry that has a high degree of fluctuation as it is easily affected by conditions of local and foreign industries. Considering this situation, analysis must first be done based on an understanding of the reasons and the cycles of business fluctuations. This study likewise, conducts a prediction of the Diffusion Index (DI) of the steel industry and a Business Warning Index (BWI) of the industry’s economy.
Korea’s steel industry has indeed showed stable growth from March 1970 to July 1972, but its growth declined plunged into negatives since the oil shock crisis between 1972 and 1973. Although the country showed signs of recovery = during 1974 and 1975, the instability found in the steel in the industry persisted at least until early 1976. In this context, more efforts must be put in order to attain a sustainable development for the steel industry, utilizing the aforementioned demand measurement methods.