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Coping with policy normalization in high-income countries

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Frame of Image 3Q2-13Q3 Dev. Countries
Across regions: common trend but different levels and composition
East Asia & Pacific 06Q1-08Q2 08Q3-09Q3 09Q4-11Q2 11Q3-13Q2 13Q2-13Q3 06Q1-08Q2 08Q3-09Q3 09Q4-11Q2 11Q3-13Q2 13Q2-13Q3 06Q1-08Q2 08Q3-09Q3 09Q4-11Q2 11Q3-13Q2 13Q2-13Q3 06Q1-08Q2 08Q3-09Q3 09Q4-11Q2 11Q3-13Q2 13Q2-13Q3 Mid. East & N. Africa South Asia Sub-Sah. Africa East Europe & Cent. Asia Lat. America & Carib. 06Q1-08Q2 08Q3-09Q3 09Q4-11Q2 11Q3-13Q2 13Q2-13Q3 06Q1-08Q2 08Q3-09Q3 09Q4-11Q2 11Q3-13Q2 13Q2-13Q3
-2 0 8 Percent of GDP F DI Credit Total Portfolio 2 4 6
global factors account for 60% of capital flow increase in post-crisis period
Increase in capital inflows to developing countries between 2009H1 and 2013H1 accounted for by changes in: (Percent of total change) 25.7 20.1
12.8
3.8
US short-term rates
QE-specific effect
US yield curve
VIX Index
Source: World Bank.
4
Baseline scenario for US interest rates
US market interest rates, percent
6 5 4
3.7% US 10 Year Treasury yield 4.5 %
3 2 1 0 -1 -2 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
3 month 1 month 6 month 1.6 %
Capital flows down by 0.6 % of GDP by 2016, driven by portfolio adjustments
Estimated decline in capital inflows in the baseline, relative to no policy change: F DI 0 -5 -0.2 -10 -15 -20 -25 -0.8 -30 -35 -1.0 Percent Percent change Percent of GDP change [Right] -0.4 Bank lending Portfolio Investment 0.0
-0.6
Percent
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6
Regions affected differently, depending on exposure to portfolio inflows
Estimated dec


Full Text
Title Coping with policy normalization in high-income countries
Similar Titles
Project Category Capacity Building Workshops
Material Type Proceedings
Author(English)

Stocker, Marc

Publisher

World Bank

Date 2014-04
Event

Frontiers in Development Policy

Project Capacity Building Workshops
Pages 29
Language English
File Type Documents
Original Format pdf
Subject Economy < Financial Policy
Holding KDI School of Public Policy and Management
Program Type Conference