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Experimental Methods : Policy Track

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Frame of Image (Y).
Impact= YT- YC
P = Program or Treatment Y = Indicator, Measure of Success YT = Outcome with the program YC = Outcome without the program (control)
Example: CCT Progresa
ü National anti-poverty program in Mexico ü Cash Transfers conditional on school and health care attendance. ü Targeting
•Eligibility based on a poverty index
ü Timing:
•Started 1997 •Phased Roll-out, 5 million beneficiaries by 2004
Research Question
What is the Impact of….
…a conditional cash transfer…
(P)
… on household consumption
(Y)
Challenge – No counterfactual
Impact= YT- YC
We do not observe what would have happened to the pupils if they did not receive any cash transfer (the counterfactual )?
CLONE
PERFECT COUNTERFACTUAL
Perfect Experiment
First, identify the target beneficiaries …
Perfect Experiment - Clones
… and then clone the target beneficiaries
Perfect Experiment - Clones
Give the cash transfer to one set of the clones
Perfect Experiment - Clones
… and compare their consumption some time later
• Because the people who received the cash transfer are exactly the same as those who did not receive the cash transfer, we can truly attribute the difference to the program
Before & After Comparing those enrolled with those not
BAD COUNTERFACTUALS
Case 1: Before & After
(1) Observe only beneficiaries (2) Two observations in time: Consumption in 1997 Consumption in 1998. Y
268 A
$35
233
B
t=1997
t=1998
T im e
ESTIMATE OF IMPACT =A-B= $35
Case 1: Before & After
Consumption (Y)
Consumption after program


Full Text
Title Experimental Methods
Similar Titles
Sub Title

Policy Track

Material Type Proceedings
Author(English)

Nazmul Chaudhury

Date 2014-05
Event [Workshop] East Asia Regional Impact Evaluation Wokshop
Pages 50
Language English
File Type Documents
Original Format pdf
Subject Territorial Development
Holding KDI School of Public Policy and Management
License