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Statistical downscaling methods based on APCC multi-model ensemble for seasonal prediction over South Korea

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ABSTRACT: An investigation was conducted to optimize the application of the multi-model ensemble (MME) technique for statistical downscaling using 1- to 6-month lead hindcasts obtained from six operational coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the APEC Climate Center (APCC) MME prediction system. Three different statistical downscaling MME methods (SDMMEs) were compared and estimated over South Korea. The study results revealed that under the same number of ensemble members, simple changes in the statistical downscaling method, such as an applicative order or a type of MME, can help to improve the predictability. The first method, the conventional technique, performed MME using data downscaled from the single-model ensemble means of each GCM (SDMME-Sm), whereas the second and third methods, newly designed in this study, calculated the simple ensemble mean (SDMME-Ae) and the weighted ensemble mean (SDMME-We) after statistical downscaling for each member of all model ensembles. These three methods were applied to predict temperature and precipitation for the 6-month summer-fall season over 23 years (1983 – 2005) at 60 weather stations over South Korea. The predictors were variables from hindcasts integrated by the six coupled GCMs. According to the analysis, both SDMME-Ae and SDMME-We showed increased predictability compared with SDMME-Sm. In particular, SDMME-We showed more significant improvement in long-term prediction. In addition, in order to ass


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Title Statistical downscaling methods based on APCC multi-model ensemble for seasonal prediction over South Korea
Similar Titles
Material Type Reports
Author(English)

Kang, Suchul; Hur, Jina; Ahn, Joong-Bae

Publisher

[Busan]:APEC Climate Center

Date 2014-02
Series Title; No International Journal of Climatology / vol. 34(no. 14)
Pages 10
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language English
File Type Documents
Original Format pdf
Subject Territorial Development < Environment
Holding APEC Climate Center; KDI School