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민간투자 도로사업의 교통수요 예측위험가치(Valuing the risks created by road transport demand forecasting in PPP Projects)

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Title 민간투자 도로사업의 교통수요 예측위험가치(Valuing the risks created by road transport demand forecasting in PPP Projects)
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Material Type Reports
Author(Korean)

김강수; 양인석; 조성빈

Publisher

서울:한국개발연구원

Date 2012-12
Series Title; No 정책연구시리즈 / 2012-17
ISBN 78-89-8063-696-9(93320)
Pages 57
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language Korean
File Type Documents
Original Format pdf
Subject Territorial Development < Transport/Logistics
Holding 한국개발연구원; KDI 국제정책대학원

Abstract

The participation of private capital in public infrastructure (PPP) investment projects has been sought by Korea governments since 1994 to overcome mainly budgetary constraints and foster economic growth. With more than 20 years' experiences in the PPP, establishing the institutional setting for a mature PPP market has been succeeded. However, there are still facing challenges that need to be resolved to vitalize the PPP. In particular, minimizing the traffic forecasting risk and identification of the value of the risk in PPP road projects are emerged as key factors which can move forward.
This paper suggests a way to identify the traffic demand risk and assess the market value of the risk in PPP road projects. The variation of forecasted traffic is analyzed according to the changes of given origin-destination demand, and the volatility and growth rate of the traffic in PPP road projects are estimated based on the operated PPP and government funded toll road projects. (The rest omitted)