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한국 에너지산업의 수요분석과 예측(Demand analysis and forecast for the Korean energy sector)

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Title 한국 에너지산업의 수요분석과 예측(Demand analysis and forecast for the Korean energy sector)
Similar Titles
Material Type Reports
Author(Korean)

김윤형; 김병목

Publisher

[서울]:한국개발연구원

Date 1975
Series Title; No 연구보고서 / 제75-17권
Pages 107
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language Korean
File Type Documents
Original Format pdf
Subject Industry and Technology < Energy
Holding KDI; KDI School

Abstract

This study identifies the defining factors of energy demand, and analyzes the energy demand in Korea across multiple dimensions.
The Arab-Israeli conflict has reduced oil supplies and raised oil prices worldwide, contributing to the inflation in many countries. With its export-oriented economic structure and record of rapid economic growth, Korea is among the countries that have been more severely hit by the oil shocks. As the Korean government’s emphasis on fostering heavy and chemical industries will continue to increase energy demand in Korea, it is necessary to develop effective measures to satisfy this demand. The energy demand of any given country is closely correlated to the makeup of industrial activities as well as the standard of living in that country. Energy demand forecasts are therefore crucial to future plans on energy and related policies. The energy demand in Korea has been growing exponentially due to the unprecedented pace of the country’s economic growth. It is vital for Korean policymakers to obtain reliable long-term forecasts on the nation’s energy demand and develop an appropriate long-term energy development plan accordingly.
The energy demand in Korea is expected to grow by at least 10 percent between 1975 and 1980, as energy-dependent industries account for over 14 percent of the gross national product (GNP). The demand for fuels is likely to grow from 54 million metric tons in 1974 to 86 million metric tons by 1981, assuming a nine percent annual growth rate. More specifically, the demand for coal and oil is likely to grow from 18 million metric tons to 81.3 million metric tons, and from 16 million metric tons to 25.5 million metric tons, respectively, between 1975 and 1971.
Therefore, policymakers need to make active use of demand analyses and forecasts on various types of energy resources in order to ensure the sustained growth of Korea’s energy sector and also develop an effective long-term energy development plan for Korea.