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Forecasting hourly electricity load of Korea using multi-seasonal exponential smoothing

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Frame of Image m electricity demands in Korea by introducing an exponential smoothing method
with multi-seasonality as the latest demand forecast technique - The short-term in this study implies a week of hourly data. - The seasonality implies repeated patterns with a regular cycle, or periodicity more precisely.   The Significance of the Study • Introducing and reviewing the latest multi-seasonal exponential smoothing method, and to apply the method domestic load forecasting for the first time. • Proposing a bottom-up method as one of the solutions to improve forecasting accuracy with multi-seasonal exponential smoothing. - The bottom-up method estimates the electricity demands by dividing the raw(hourly) data into two
Korea Energy Economics Institute
1
daily and one hourly data, and then combines them later for forecasting load in original unit.
[Fig. 2-1] Methodologies for the short-term electricity demand forecast
Statistical methodologies Exponential Strength:Interpretation of the variables of Smoothing the models and the analysis results is intuitive. Method Regression Analysis Weakness:The non-linear relationship Time Series between variables cannot be easily Analysis modeled Artificial Intelligence Methodologies Strength:The non-linear relationship Fuzzy theory between variables is easily modeled. Expert systems Artificial Weakness:Special relationships between Neural variables are hardly integrable Networks
Ⅱ. Forecast of Electricity Demands Using Exponential Smoothing
  Methodolog


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Title Forecasting hourly electricity load of Korea using multi-seasonal exponential smoothing
Similar Titles
Material Type Reports
Author(English)

Kim, Cherl-Hyun

Publisher

Ulsan:Korea Energy Economics Institute

Date 2015-06
Series Title; No Policy Issue Paper / 13-06
Pages 12
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language English
File Type Documents
Original Format pdf
Subject Industry and Technology < Energy
Holding Korea Energy Economics Institute