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Anatomy of the trade collapse, recovery, and slowdown : Evidence from Korea

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Frame of Image 144 URL: http://www.kiep.go.kr HYUN Jung Taik, President Published June 15, 2017 in Korea by KIEP ISBN 978-89-322-4269-9 94320 978-89-322-4026-8 (set) Price USD 3 ⓒ 2017 KIEP
Executive Summary
The last decade of the world trade has been marked by an unprecedented collapse, quick recovery, slowdown, another drop, and recovery. To study cyclical and structural aspects of the recent trend of trade, I use both aggregate and disaggregated trade statistics of a small open economy, South Korea, whose economic success and growth have been heavily dependent on exports. The aggregate trend of the country is surprisingly similar to that of the world, which is why the trend of Korea's export is called a proxy for the world. I show that while the last drop of trade after 2015 has cyclical aspects, there is evidence that the continued slowdown from 2012 is structural: (1) the so-called `China factor' is found in the analysis of trade-income elasticity of the world and China for imports from Korea. (2) The bilateral trade barriers between Korea and its important trading partners are universally tightening. I also show that the firm sizes, destination countries, and the mode of transactions affect disaggregated trade flows during the slowdown periods. It is advisable to diversify main export products to lower the effect of oil prices on export prices and to strengthen the cooperation with ASEAN countries, whose trade barriers have exceptionally diminished throughout the last decade. Keywords


Full Text
Title Anatomy of the trade collapse, recovery, and slowdown
Similar Titles
Sub Title

Evidence from Korea

Material Type Theses
Author(English)

LEE,Sooyoung

Publisher

Sejong,South Korea : Korea Insitute for International Economic Policy

Date 2017-06
Series Title; No Working paper / 17-03
Pages 51
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language English
File Type Documents
Original Format pdf
Subject Economy < Trade
Economy < Economic Conditions
Holding Korea Insitute for International Economic Policy
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