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위기 이후 통화정책의 방향 및 시사점(Direction and implications of monetary policy in the post-crisis period) : 자연이자율 하락을 중심으로(Focusing on a declining natural rate of interest )

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Frame of Image 아낌없는 조언을 준 KDI 연구진들과 유익한 논평을 주신 익명의 검토자들께 깊은 감사를 표하는 바이다. 아 울러 본 연구를 위해 성심껏 노력해 준 이경희 연구원과 박현정 행정원 께도 감사의 뜻을 전한다.
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2015년 12월 한국개발연구원 원장
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목차
발간사 요 약 ······························································································································ 1
제1장 서 론·············································································································· 제2장 이자율 하락 현상과 통화정책····································································
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제1절 이자율의 일반적 하락 ············································································ 5 제2절 통화정책체계의 변화 ············································································· 8
제3장 저금리 현상의 분석: 자연이자율 추정···················································
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제1절 자연이자율의 정의 ··············································································· 13 제2절 우리나라 이자율의 추이 ······································································ 15 제3절 비관측인자모형 ····················································································· 17 제4절 자연이자율에 대한 다변량 모형 ·························································· 20 제5절 자연이자율에 대한 실증분석 ································································ 22
제4장 정책적 시사점·······························································································
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제1절 위기 이후 통화정책 여건 ····································································· 33 제2절 통화정책의 방향 및


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Title 위기 이후 통화정책의 방향 및 시사점(Direction and implications of monetary policy in the post-crisis period)
Similar Titles
Sub Title

자연이자율 하락을 중심으로(Focusing on a declining natural rate of interest )

Material Type Reports
Author(Korean)

이재준; 배진호

Publisher

세종 : 한국개발연구원

Date 2015-12
Series Title; No 정책연구시리즈 / 2015-15
ISBN 979-11-5932-200-6
Pages 74
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language Korean
File Type Documents
Original Format pdf
Subject Economy < Economic Administration
Holding 한국개발연구원; KDI국제정책대학원
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Abstract

In the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, many major countries took to implementing diverse monetary policies including non-traditional measures. The most discerning facet of these trials, however, is that, despite the swift and drastic cuts in the base rate, the majority have failed to rebound from the economic slump, unlike after previous crises. Moreover, a zero-bound nominal interest rate has rendered conventional monetary policies obsolete, leaving little choice but to turn to new, unorthodox methods. This study focuses on the changes in interest rates, particularly low interest rates. It quantitatively estimates the equilibrium interest rate (or natural rate of interest) of the Korean economy and examines distinctive patterns in the post-crisis period. The results of the empirical analysis project that Korea’s base rate will remain low for the time being due to a declining natural rate of interest (or equilibrium interest rate). A persistent downward trend in the natural rate of interest raises the probability of a zero-bound rate, which is the fundamental cause that nullifies conventional monetary policies at a time of crisis. As such, intensive policy attention and cautious approaches are needed more than ever with regards to the changes in the natural rate of interest.