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장수리스크 측정과 관리방안에 대한 연구(A study on measuring and managing longevity risk)

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Title 장수리스크 측정과 관리방안에 대한 연구(A study on measuring and managing longevity risk)
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Material Type Reports
Author(Korean)

최용옥

Publisher

세종 : 한국개발연구원

Date 2015-12
Series Title; No 정책연구시리즈 / 2015-18
ISBN 979-11-5932-141-2 (93320)
Pages 94
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language Korean
File Type Documents
Original Format pdf
Subject Economy < Economic Conditions
Social Development < Population
Holding 한국개발연구원; KDI국제정책대학원
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Abstract

Korea has experienced unprecedently rapid increase in life expectancy. More importantly the size of the unexpected increase in longevity is much bigger than that of any other advanced economies. This means the Korean government faces a huge financial risk. In this paper, we identify the cause of the overestimation in mortality to develop a new mortality forecasting model. Based on the population projection through the new mortality rate forecasts, we quantitatively measure the size of the longevity risk for the government. As a result of large longevity exposures of the Korean government, if realized, the longevity risk alone could push up debt-to-GDP ratios by 33.8 percent points as of 2060. We also make some suggestions on mitigating the longevity risk.