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대북경제제재의 영향력 추정과 실효성 증진방안(Estimating the early impact of the Chinese economic sanction on North Korea)

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Title 대북경제제재의 영향력 추정과 실효성 증진방안(Estimating the early impact of the Chinese economic sanction on North Korea)
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Material Type Reports
Author(Korean)

이석; 전병곤

Publisher

세종 : 한국개발연구원

Date 2016-08
Series Title; No 정책연구시리즈 / 2016-06
ISBN 979-11-5932-210-5
Pages 131
Subject Country North Korea(Asia and Pacific)
South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language Korean
File Type Documents
Original Format pdf
Subject Industry and Technology < Science/Technology
Government and Law < Internal Conflict
Holding 한국개발연구원; KDI국제정책대학원
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Abstract

This paper estimates the early effect of the Chinese economic sanction on North Korea based on the United Nations Security Council resolution 2270 in 2016. Specifically, we examine the change of the Chinese government policies and perceptions on North Korea before and after the fourth DPRK nuclear test, discussing how it led to the Chinese economic sanction. Then we estimate the sanction effect between April and August 2016 using the Chinese custom’s monthly trade statistics since July 2010. The main findings of the paper are summarised as follows. First, it is observed that the Chinese government changed to some degree its policies and attitudes toward North Korea since the fourth DPRK nuclear test. China agreed with the UN resolution 2270 applying many tough sanction measures to North Korea. And the Chinese government repeatedly emphasised its strong will to realize the measures, announcing specific trade items on which the Chines government would impose restrictions regarding the China-DPRK trade. Second, it is however also observed that the Chinese economic sanction has clear constraints. The basic direction of the Chinese policies toward Korean peninsular has not changed fundamentally aveb after the fourth DPRK nuclear test. China still tends to see that the US is more threatening in terms of East Asian security environments than North Korea’s nuclear ambition. Indeed China has pursued ‘denuclearisation of North Korea by stabilsation of Korean peninsular’, rather than ‘stabilsation of Korean peninsular by denuclearisation of North Korea’. In this context China has emphasised the US repsonsibilities on the DPRK issues, simultaneous negotiation process of both denuclearisation and peace treaty on the Korean peninsular, so-called DPRK peoples’ lives and its strong resistance against the deployment of THHAD system to the ROK. Third, the Chinese government announced 25 commodities in HS 10 digits as the specified objects of its economic sanction on North Korea. These items could be aggregated into 20 commodities in HS 8 digits for the purpose of data analysis. Of those 20 commodities, however, 12 commodities had not been traded between China and North Korea at all. It means that the Chines economic sanction could work only for the 40 percent of the announced sanction objects. Fourth, a variety of econometric tests were carried out in oder to identify whether there were statistically significant changes in the China-DPRK trade since the Chines government announced to implement its sanction measures in March 2016. And the results are ① there were no such changes in terms of total trade between the two countries, ② no such changes in terms of the specified sanction objects in general, ③ no such changes in terms of each of the sanction objects with only one exception: North Korea’s export of Gold asnd Gold Ores. To sum up, data analysis suggests that there was no significant effect of Chinese sanction between April and August 2016.