This research is designed to suggest necessary education and training, new employment framework and main tasks for Korea to accomplish sustainable development based on foresight in a future society.
First, the study reviews earlier studies regarding the future foresight and understood future trends, key drivers and uncertainty which have impacts on the education and training, and employment in the future. The STEEP (Society, Technology, Economy, Environment, Politics) analysis framework is laid out to carry out this study.
Second, the research focuses to analyze earlier studies, policies and NAVER news related to the education, training and employment in a time sequence. With the collection of data, the research shows the vocational education and training system (relationship between education, training and employment) and its main issues by using big data analysis. Furthermore, the study draws the future issues on the education, training and employment through the keyword matrix analysis.
Third, the research selects the crucial future trends, key drivers, and uncertainty in the education, training and employment sectors. Experts group meetings and Delphi study ran in parallel to create the foresight scenario based on the results. The survey contributes not only to draw the high feasible scenario with a desirable picture of our future but also to show the policy issues for the education, training and employment.
Fourth, the research suggests the new education, training, framework and policy issues for future employment based upon the analysis and survey results.
Results of this report can be summarized as follow.
First, four divers which underline main STEEP trends have been identified. ICT technology (AI, IOT, Big data, Virtual reality)innovation has most critical impact on economy, education and training. It has more potential impact on future of work and life. Within 10 years it would not erode number of jobs because it could help create new jobs, but after 10 years that will seriously erode jobs. ICT technology will change nature of job and daily life soon and later. Low birth rate and ageing are ready bring huge impact on society and economy negatively if emigration regulation will not be altered. It is possible to have more active aged population who would lead consumption in service industry. Korea society will allow ethnic diversity and gender equality. Emerging China economy has great impacts on economy. China would be a black hole for technology startups because China could attract highly motivated entrepreneurs from Korea. Competition between Korean companies and Chinese companies has started from traditional industries to cutting edged technology industries. Social and economic polarization has been a critical policy issue because it deteriorates quality of life
and mid and long term national competitiveness.
According to WEF (World Economic Forum) report on national competitiveness comparison, Korea was top 8th in 2008, but went down to 26th in 2015. Lack of Government policy consistency and transparency, low efficiency of conglomerates’ management, low efficiency of industry ecosystem (large company centered industry structure), mismatch between education provision and industry needs, and poor quality of industrial cooperation are main causes of the national competitiveness sliding. Reform of education & training and job strategy is the most important measure to make a difference in national competitiveness. As the result of big data analysis, mismatch between job strategy and education system, national policy and public needs on job strategy have been identified. It is critical to address the mismatches.
The researcher has developed multiple forecast scenarios in 5, 10, 15 years, based on literature review, expert intensive discussion reports and expert panel survey. In 5 year scenario, mainstreaming start-ups is the core factor to differentiate two scenarios. In 10 years, China and cooperation with the North Korea are the key uncertainties. In 15 years, artificial intelligence and robotics, and environmental emergency are main factor because after 1o years, smart machines could replace human labour directly.
It is critical to prepare futures in order to make a better future. The report suggests new policy ideas. First category is on new idea and frame. 1. Increasing entrepreneurship and startup skills to make a breakthrough on employment uncertainty. Vocational education and training have to play pivotal role in this regards. 2. Digitalization of traditional skills to increase middle skill jobs. 3. Empowering skilled workforce in social and industrial relations to enhance skill-based-society as bearer of skill capital. Second category is on TVET system. 1. Customized career development and TVET system suitable for stage of the life cycle, 2. Developing national qualification framework to assess different format of skills in variety. 3. Life-long TVET platform based on smart technology to meet new emerging different needs. Third category is on strategic targets and areas. 1. New TVET system for the reunification era, 2. HRD Strategy of Korea culture wave industry and emerging industry development. 3. HRD and Job strategy for gender mainstreaming. 4. TVET Policy on Cultural diversity and massive emigration, 5. Globalization of TVET system and ODA, 6. Safety and TVET: how to make safer society through TVET measures.
지속성장을 위한 교육훈련·고용의 새로운 프레임과 주요 과제개발
세종 : 한국직업능력개발원
|Series Title; No||기본연구 / 2015-21|
|Subject Country||South Korea(Asia and Pacific)|
|Subject||Social Development < Education
Social Development < Employment