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Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: The Case of East Asia

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  • Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: The Case of East Asia
  • Asian Development Bank (ADB)


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Title Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: The Case of East Asia
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Material Type Reports
Publisher

Asian Development Bank (ADB)

Date 2007
Series Title; No Regional Economic Integration Working Papers
Language English
File Type Link
Subject Economy < Financial Policy
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Abstract

This paper examines whether increasing trade intensity among East Asian countries has led to a synchronization of business cycles. It extends the work of Shin and Wang (2004) in two ways: by (i) improving the specification of their business cycle correlation equation, and (ii) extending the sample to cover the period after the Asian financial crisis. The study finds that intra-industry trade, rather than inter-industry trade, is the major factor explaining business cycle co-movements in East Asia, with important implications for the prospects for a single currency in the region.