With the advent of digital nomadic devises like smart phone and their tremendous applications, the ubiquitous information and communication society has come in the true sense of the word. Realtime traffic information from every corner of highways CCTV's and optimal transit information with the various combinations of mass transportation can be easily obtained from the ubiquitous networks throughout the whole nation. It is commonly expected that as fast as the development of ICT(Information and Communication Technology) the travel pattern will be significantly changed over the whole spectrum of people's trips from commuting to leisure purposes. So, the consideration of ICT impact on the travel behavior is highly required to estimate the future traffic demand accurately in the course of forecasting process, which is becoming very challenging issue. The importance of the accurate traffic demand forecasting can not be overemphasized to determine rationally the feasibility of SOC infrastructure including roadway and railway etc. However, some Light-Rail Transit projects of local governments and some private invested highway projects has come to deadlock because of the mismatching problem between the forecasted demand and actual demand after the implementation in Korea. It is noted that one of the main limitation of current traffic forecasting methodology it's the lack of macroscopic point of view which can consider aging society, climate change, and energy supply chain etc.
In this context, utilizing system dynamics methodology for macroscopic trend analysis, the purpose of the study is to estimate the ICT impact on the changes of traffic demand during the last 10 years period of remarkable ICT development in Korea. Especially it focuses the major two factor's ; investment scale for intelligent transport systems and level of internet usages for estimating the influence on the traffic demand. It also forecasts the future traffic demand base on the impact analysis for diagnosing the possibility of reducing CO2 in the transportation industry sector. The study presents that the future traffic demand will not dramatically decreased as we generally expected or even slightly increased according the relevant policy implementation. Moreover, maintaining the current level of investment to the intelligent transport systems including advanced traffic management system, advanced traveler information system and advanced public transportation system is necessary for the central and local government to achieve the post 2012 goal of CO2 reduction in transportation sector.
Key words _ Ubiquitous environment, ICT, Traffic Demand Forecasting, System Dynamics
- U-국토 환경에 대비한 교통수요예측기법의 개발 및 적용방안 연구(Traffic demand forecasting under the consideration of ubiquitous ICT environment)
- 이상건; 김호정; 조춘만
U-국토 환경에 대비한 교통수요예측기법의 개발 및 적용방안 연구(Traffic demand forecasting under the consideration of ubiquitous ICT environment)
경기 : 국토연구원
|Subject Country||South Korea(Asia and Pacific)|
|Subject||Territorial Development < Transport/Logistics|