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건설경기 진단 및 전망체계 구축 (Building construction composite index and econometric forecasting model)

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  • 건설경기 진단 및 전망체계 구축 (Building construction composite index and econometric forecasting model)
  • 김민철; 김성일; 안홍기
  • 국토연구원


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Title 건설경기 진단 및 전망체계 구축 (Building construction composite index and econometric forecasting model)
Similar Titles
Material Type Reports
Author(Korean)

김민철; 김성일; 안홍기

Publisher

경기:국토연구원

Date 2010
ISBN 978-89-8182-784-7
Pages 116
Language Korean
File Type Link
Original Format pdf
Subject Economy
Industry and Technology < Construction
Holding 국토연구원

Abstract

This study gather and arrange the theories and issues about construction business cycle and prospection. Almost early studies separately made the composite index of the construction business cycle and forecasting model of the construction sector. We specialized this study by using comprehensive approach which consists business cycle composite index, structural equation model, and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our main results are belows.
We constructed a leading index of construction business cycle by compositing land transaction, KOSPI of construction industry, construction permits, and contracts. And we made a coincident index of construction business cycle by compositing payment for construction, starts of construction, shipment of mid-material for construction, and employment of construction industry.
Construction sector was endogenously solved when structural equation model was made. So we can examine the effect of the shock from construction sector to macro economy and also the shock from macro and oversea to construction sector. Construction sectors are separated by sub-construction sectors. So the structural model can be used the concrete purposes by various construction market experts.
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model approach is the up-to-date methodology. DSGE model shows the virtual world of the theoretical world. Construction investment shocks are implemented through the government expenditure. We can infer the effect of construction investment from the effect from the government expenditure.
1% government expenditure shock raise the output by 0.1%, and 1 year later output converge to the original level. Consumption drop down by crowding out effect and recover the original level. Employment showed the similar to the output. Price level went up 0.01% and came back the original level 1 year later.
Government expenditure explain the 24% of output variance which is similar to the labor productivity shock. Labor variability could be explained by government expenditure. Therefore government expenditures including the construction investment lessened the output decrease by 1/4 and lessened the labor decrease by 1/5.
Composite indices and structural equation model and the DSGE model has robustness, so these modes are used the implementation of the effective policy scheme based on the economic theories.