Nowadays the national economy is reflating steadily after IMF crises. however the construction economy is recovering very slow and unstable, under this circumstance, huge development projects such as Multi-functional Administrative City, enterprise-city, innovation-city are under driving. If these projects were driven under poor understandings of business cycles and policy effects, then those may cause overheating construction economy like the 2 Million house project in the past. In this research, we examine the construction economy cycle and analyze the effects of 2 Million house project as a measure. Also, we forecast economic fluctuation under those huge projects, which described above, and propose cyclical countermeasures as well.
The construction economy cycle had been co-moved with the national economy cycle till mid of 80's. But the construction economy cycle has been separating from the national economy cycle after 80's. It originated in the measures in the past such as 2 Million house project. At that time, 2 Million house project was about to drive, the construction economy was already boomed. So that construction economy was overheated. Even though, prices was stable, eventually the materials and wage were inflated. After 2 Million house project completed, new-comer of construction industry requested the stimulative step spontaneously, the construction counter-cyclical measures became asymmetric measures. That is nothing but one directional based one which reflationary step, so that national economy can not support the construction economy any more. The only affirmation of the construction industry is that its supplying ability has grown somehow.
At present, the construction economy cycle is showing stable growing status. Its trend will be continuous for a while, managing to pass the bottom point at 2007 successfully. The peak point will be 2010, when those huge SOC project are halfway through the progress. In accordance with this forecasting, we need to prepare counter measures which can cool down the rapid overheating cycle. Those measures can be, establishing the monitoring system of the construction business cycle, evaluation systems for economic effect of the huge SOC project, especially long-term plan of materials and man-power supplies.
Also we need to bring better approach for not only the execution times but the regional disproportion. Multi-functional Administrative City, enterprise-city, innovation-city are not based on metropolitan area in a different way with 2 Million house project. the major supplying ability of construction industry is still based on metropolitan. Therefore, we need to cultivate the mobility of materials and manpower supplies and economical exchanges between different regions.
- 건설경기의 구조적 진단과 대응방안 연구(The construction business cycle, construction industry and national economy)
- 김재영; 안홍기; 권혁진; 김민철
건설경기의 구조적 진단과 대응방안 연구(The construction business cycle, construction industry and national economy)
경기 : 국토연구원
Industry and Technology < Construction