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보건, 의료부문 장기재정 모형 구축(A model of long-term healthcare costs)

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  • 보건, 의료부문 장기재정 모형 구축(A model of long-term healthcare costs)
  • 김종면; 김우철
  • 한국조세연구원


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Title 보건, 의료부문 장기재정 모형 구축(A model of long-term healthcare costs)
Similar Titles
Material Type Reports
Author(Korean)

김종면; 김우철

Publisher

서울:한국조세연구원

Date 2007-12
Series Title; No 연구보고서 / 07-15
ISBN 978-89-8191-383-0
Pages 152
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language Korean
File Type Link
Subject Economy < Financial Policy
Social Development < Health
Holding 한국조세연구원

Abstract

We focus on two factors that have not been fully investigated in previous long-term forecast of the National Health Insurance expenditures: a) the possibility that mortality rates may fall faster than had been previously assumed, hence resulting in different population projections, and b) the possibility that relative age-specific healthcare costs may not be as stable as had been implicitly assumed in many precious studies.
Qualitatively, our new population projection does not differ greatly from the National Statistics Office’s (NSO) official projection (2006). Over the long-term, the total population was slightly larger in our study. The peak population was estimated to reach 49.7million during 2020-2025, which is close to the 49.3million in 2018 projected by the NSO. Our projection departs more significantly from the NSO’s, however, after 2020 and reaches 44million in 2050, which is 4% larger than the NSO’s 42.3millon. (The rest omitted)