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기후변화와 식중독 발생 예측(Climate change, food-borne disease prediction, and future impact)

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  • 기후변화와 식중독 발생 예측(Climate change, food-borne disease prediction, and future impact)
  • 신호성; 정기혜; 윤시몬; 이수형
  • 한국보건사회연구원


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Title 기후변화와 식중독 발생 예측(Climate change, food-borne disease prediction, and future impact)
Similar Titles
Material Type Articles
Author(Korean)

신호성; 정기혜; 윤시몬; 이수형

Publisher

서울:한국보건사회연구원

Date 2009-06
Journal Title; Vol./Issue 보건사회연구:vol.29(no.1)
Pages 23
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language Korean
File Type Link
Subject Territorial Development < Environment
Social Development < Health
Holding 한국보건사회연구원

Abstract

There is enormous public interest associated with measuring the impacts of climate change. Food borne diseases may be one of the most significant contemporary public health problems. The purpose of study was to estimate the prevalence of food borne diseases due to the climate change and to predict the future impact.
The analytical approach used generalized linear Poisson regression models adapted for time-series data. To account for seasonal patterns of food-borne disease not directly due to weather factors, Fourier terms with annual periodicity were introduced into the model. To allow autocorrelation due to biological process of pathogen development and host reaction and the long-term trend, we considered time lags and year variable. The data we used was a panel data from 2003 to 2007.
The food-borne disease patients increased 5.27~5.99%(relative risk rate) per a Celsius degree. Moreover, the weekly food-borne disease patients increased 6.18~7.01%(relative risk rate) per a Celsius degree. In the case of the weekly patients, the relative humidity was significant, so the weekly patient decreased 1.7% when the relative humidity increased 1 %. Compared to reference year, 2003, there was no a certain trend in the food borne disease patients due to differences as per year and analysis methods.
Climate change will not result in a uniform warming over the globe. With the oceanic and atmospheric circulations, large scale change will adjust smaller scale weather features including the frequency of extreme events, and in turn the prevalence of food-borne diseases. Disease surveillance, proper case management, environmental monitoring and international communication systems were key for cubing the spread of contamination and/or outbreak of food-borne diseases.