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도시정책 시나리오에 따른 토지이용변화 예측연구(Land use change prediction based on urban policy scenarios)

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  • 도시정책 시나리오에 따른 토지이용변화 예측연구(Land use change prediction based on urban policy scenarios)
  • 김대종; 임은선; 김상조
  • 국토연구원


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Title 도시정책 시나리오에 따른 토지이용변화 예측연구(Land use change prediction based on urban policy scenarios)
Similar Titles
Material Type Reports
Author(Korean)

김대종; 임은선; 김상조

Publisher

경기도:국토연구원

Date 2011-03
Series Title; No 국토연 / 2011-1
ISBN 978-89-8182-791-5
Pages 106
Language Korean
File Type Link
Original Format pdf
Subject Territorial Development < National Land Development
Territorial Development < Environment
Holding 국토연구원

Abstract

Chapter 1 Introduction
Land use change accompanied by urban growth that is land conversion from agricultural and forest land to urban land is directly associated with sustainable development because of climate change and reduction of biodiversity. Urbanization has fragmented agricultural land and forest to destroy habitat for plants and animals. It also has dramatically increased greenhouse gas that is a main cause to climate change due to increased traffic and moving distance. Not only the increased cost for building infrastructure but also health issue caused by air and water pollution are social issues as well.
Land use change is directly associated with urban policy. Urban policy in the past was to support economic development policy. Semi-agricultural zone was one of the main policy to provide land for residential and industrial demand. Unplanned development became a social issue. The policy of ‘first planning, second development’ has been evaluated abased on their properties. Recently, some advanced policies such as smart growth and green growth are actively being discussed as strategies to climate change.
The goal of this study is to evaluate the difference between urban growth policies based on past trend and smart growth. Accordingly, two scenarios were developed to predict land use change for the year of 2020, 2030 and 2040 in ten main cities.

Chapter 2 Development of urban policy scenarios
The pattern of land use change is dependent on urban policy. Anyhow, the urban policy needs to incorporate the real world. In other words, policy should be a tool to address the issues of real world. Two scenarios were set up as premises for land use change prediction.
Smart growth for urban growth management in U.S.A, new urbanism to increase competitiveness, urban village to return to traditional village to revive community in U.K. and compact city to cope with climate change and to save energy in E.U. and Japan are some of urban policies that are affecting Korea. The terms and concepts are a little different but main strategies are same as compact development, mixed use, re-urbanization, transit-oriented development, community revitalization and preservation of outskirt.
Urban policy is changing from supporting economic development in the past to ‘first planning, second development’ to cope with external diseconomy caused by rapid urbanization. In addition, urban policy is facing a new stage because of national policy moving into green growth to respond o climate change. Accordingly, this study has developed two scenarios: One is to extend past trend and the other is smart growth. The scenario of extension of past trend to future is to converse randomly undeveloped land into urban land from developable land identified by land regulation and physical constraints until the projected land demand is satisfied. The other scenario of smart growth is to develop contiguous or neighbouring land adjacent to developed land.

Chapter 3 Methodologies for land use change prediction
First, land demand was projected to predict land use change. The amount of land demand was summed from estimation for residential, industrial and tourism use and assigned to each city based on the ratio of projected population. Finally, ten cities were selected where they relatively need more green filed to develop in the future.
Two steps were taken to predict land use change: the first step was to analyze developable land, and the second step was to converse some land according to scenarios. First, undevelopable land was exempted based on elevation and slope defined in the ordinance of land use planning of local government. Then, 4 and 5 grade of environmental conservation value assessment map were chosen for developable land. The map produced by Ministry of Environment has addressed land regulations, and environmental and ecological values. (The rest is omitted)

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이 연구보고서의 내용은 국토연구원의 자체 연구물로서 정부의 정책이나 견해와는 상관없습니다.