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통합적 미래연구 방법론의 탐색 및 적용(Exploration and application of integrated foresight methods)

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  • 통합적 미래연구 방법론의 탐색 및 적용(Exploration and application of integrated foresight methods)
  • 이세준; 이윤준; 홍정임
  • 과학기술정책연구원


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Title 통합적 미래연구 방법론의 탐색 및 적용(Exploration and application of integrated foresight methods)
Similar Titles
Material Type Reports
Author(Korean)

이세준; 이윤준; 홍정임

Publisher

서울:과학기술정책연구원

Date 2008-12
Series Title; No 정책연구 / 08-16
ISBN 978-89-6112-059-3
Pages 229
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language Korean
File Type Link
Subject Industry and Technology < Science/Technology
Holding 과학기술정책연구원

Abstract

In a knowledge-based society, increased uncertainty caused by rapid
development of science and technology and changes in the socioeconomic
environment has highlighted the need for developing national strategy based
on rational and scientific foresight and it has also intensified the need for
developing national strategy through foresight. In other words, increased
uncertainty requires securing capabilities to manage opportunities as well as
threats through scientific forecasting activities. Especially, when foresight is
shaped by interactions between science and technology on one hand and
economy and society on the other hand, developing S&T vision and strategy
through a linkage between socioeconomic foresight and S&T forecasting
has become very important.
Like this, the urgency and the importance of developing national future
strategy is ever increasing. However, the reality is that the base of foresight
is still very weak in Korea. So far, foresight has been biased toward
short-term demand analysis focused on technology forecasting. As result, the
framework and methodology necessary for developing future strategy are
lacking. Therefore, it is necessary to secure an integrated research
framework that enables technology and demand forecasting in the context of
interdependencies between socioeconomic and cultural change elements. In
addition, serious consideration has to be taken to understand the needs of
the government, companies and the general public who are actual consumers of foresight, so that foresight can be directly used for developing future
strategy and making policies.
In this context, this study explores appropriate methods for foresight by
analyzing and comparing characteristics and evolutionary trends of major
future studies by time period through literature review and a survey on
future research methods in Korea and foreign countries. Additionally, this
study explores ways to build a linkage between foresight and national
strategy by defining the concept of foresight methodologies through the
analysis of the frequency of the application of methods and the breakdown
of methods by research theme and by research scope. This study has
important significance as it has built a framework for foresight in the
following years by presenting guidelines for applying an integrated foresight
framework developed through this process to major issues.
One of the important characteristics of an integrated foresight
methodology proposed in this study is that this method is based on
scenarios presenting various future options by taking consideration of future
uncertainty. Another important characteristic is that this scenario-based
integrated method compares technology options derived from the analysis of
future target scenarios and cross impact analysis, so that it can be used for
evaluating technology impact or understanding whether the proposed
technologies meet the socioeconomic needs along the future socioeconomic
trends. In this regard, this newly proposed method overcomes the biggest
weaknesses of the existing science and technology forecasting analysis.
In order for the outcome of foresight to be efficiently linked and utilized
for policy development, a delicate process is required from preparation to
future analysis, identification of vision and policy directions, execution and
implementation, evaluation and monitoring and understanding of trends. To
make this process a well-orchestrated one, it is necessary to secure
system-wise support by launching an organization specialized in foresight
planning at the national level and strengthening continuous monitoring of
future studies through strengthened linkages between domestic and foreign
research institutions based on the integrated foresight methodology presented
in this study.