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R&D 프로그램의 유형별 경제성 평가 방법론 구축(Methodolog of economic assessions for classified R&D programs) : 이론 및 실물옵션을 이용한 경제적 가치 선정의 사례 연구

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  • R&D 프로그램의 유형별 경제성 평가 방법론 구축(Methodolog of economic assessions for classified R&D programs)
  • Hwang, SeogWon황석원
  • 과학기술정책연구원


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Title R&D 프로그램의 유형별 경제성 평가 방법론 구축(Methodolog of economic assessions for classified R&D programs)
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Sub Title

이론 및 실물옵션을 이용한 경제적 가치 선정의 사례 연구

Material Type Reports
Author(English)

Hwang, SeogWon

Author(Korean)

황석원

Publisher

서울:과학기술정책연구원

Date 2006-10
Series Title; No 정책연구 / 06-12
ISBN 978-89-89052-89-0
Pages 130
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language Korean
File Type Link
Subject Industry and Technology < Science/Technology
Holding 과학기술정책연구원

Abstract

Under circumstances with increasing uncertainty, strategic flexibility has
become an essential point on which any R&D management system should be
based. Unfortunately the present R&D management system for government
sponsored R&D programs cannot be said to be so flexible to adapt
appropriately to various threatens such as technological failure, a severe
change in competition environment, and so on.
In this research a new scheme for R&D planning and economic assessment
with strategic flexibility is suggested and applied to a real R&D program. In the
newly suggested R&D management system, economic valuation based on real
option theory is performed for various alternative scenarios which have different
strategic scheme for R&D process each and the result of the assessment is fed
back to R&D planning to choose more superior strategic scheme. Introducing
strategic flexibility into R&D planning and economic assessment, the value of
R&D project could be remarkably enhanced.
Economic assessment procedures based on the new scheme are designed for
six different types of R&D programs each; basic/ex ante, basic/ex post,
applied/ex ante/commercial, applied/ex ante/public, applied/ex post/ commercial,
applied/ex post/public. Most of them except the procedure for basic research
consist of two main stages which are money-metric valuation firstly and
multi-criteria decision making secondly.
Money-metric valuation cannot be fully completed by DCF only in the
situation where strategic flexibility, that is, various options, should be considered.
A finite time difference method based on real option theory is developed to do
money-metric valuation completely, the main point of which is estimating the
value of a R&D program/project by simulation using an appropriate stochastic
process.
In the application SMART-p R&D program is evaluated money-metrically by
the method suggested in this research. In order to add strategic flexibility into
the original plan, time interval between decision stages and decision cost are
considered as variables, on which various scenarios are made and evaluated.
In the result, the more decision stages are arranged, the more money-metric
value has a scenario. That is because the cost for decision is very small
compared to economic value increased by added flexibility from added decision
stages in the application.