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시공간통합 국토시뮬레이션모형 개발 연구(II)(Intergrated spatio-temporal simulation model for nationl territorial policy(II)) : 국토정책 시뮬레이션을 위한 시공간통합모형 개발방안(Research method and case studies)

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  • 시공간통합 국토시뮬레이션모형 개발 연구(II)(Intergrated spatio-temporal simulation model for nationl territorial policy(II))
  • 최병남; 임은선; 이동우
  • 국토연구원


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Title 시공간통합 국토시뮬레이션모형 개발 연구(II)(Intergrated spatio-temporal simulation model for nationl territorial policy(II))
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Sub Title

국토정책 시뮬레이션을 위한 시공간통합모형 개발방안(Research method and case studies)

Material Type Reports
Author(Korean)

최병남; 임은선; 이동우

Publisher

경기도:국토연구원

Date 2006-12
Series Title; No 국토연 / 2006-41
ISBN 89-8182-452-5
Pages 194
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language Korean
File Type Link
Original Format pdf
Subject Territorial Development < National Land Development
Holding 국토연구원

Abstract

The national territory is the space where people live their life while performing various activities. The Korean government plans various national territorial policies to construct a national territorial space in which people wish to live. National territorial development projects bring about changes in the national territorial space, and affect the quality of people’s life and environment. As a result, while a better environment for living is created by the projects, sometimes they exert negative influences. Thus, decision makers who plan and perform national territorial policies need to simulate the results expected to be caused by various development activities.
The purpose of this research is to investigate the development methods for simulating the national territorial policy in the perspective of integrated spatio-temporal model. The previous research conducted in 2005 suggested the integration of System Dynamics and GIS-based spatial analysis methods as a way to construct the national territorial policy simulation model. This research as the follow-up study is to construct an experimental model and system in this respect, using model development methodologies and through case studies.
The results are as follows: firstly, this study develops a flexible model for simulating a regional sector structural change incurred by national territorial policies. The model is developed by using the system dynamics method on a pilot basis. Using the model, it is possible to estimate future population and land use scale through the feedback loop between subsystems that compose the national territory. The spatial analysis has been conducted on 16 metropolitan cities and regions, and the model is composed of 5 elements of population, housing, industry, land use, and transportation. Variables and parameters of the model are introduced based on the results of the previous study.
Secondly, this study develops the model of land use change for simulating the effect of the change in the regional industrial structure on land use in regions. The land use change model analyzes the potential of land use change using various spatial data. The principle for the model is to distribute the future demand for land use to lands with a high potential that is required for development. The spatial model has a resolution of 30m by 30m, and estimates the change in land use by year using various spatial data. However, the statistical test using past data needs to improve the validity of the model.
Lastly, the study develops an experimental system and constructs a framework of the model for integrated spatio-temporal national territorial policy simulation, integrating a flexible model and a spatial model. The experimental system is constructed by loosely-coupling ArcGIS and STELLA, and effectively visualizes the integrative simulation results of a flexible and spatial model.
The models developed in this study are experimental models that adopts the integrative spatio-temporal approaches. Thus, it is necessary to conduct follow-up studies in order to construct a concrete model, introduce various variables, and test parameters to be applied to real policies for the national territory.