The purpose of this study is to build a multi-sector model for Korean housing market. Housing market, housing finance market, labor market and land market are included in the model. Housing polcies should be carried out considerign the circumstances surrounding the housing marekt, and an econometric model is a powerful and practical tool for this purpose.
The specified model in the study is based on the disequilibrium theory, partial adjustment procedure and minimum condition. The model reflects Korean housing sector which has inefficient market structure and unstable factor markets. The Three Stage Least Square method is primarily used for estimating the parameters in order to avoide the simultaneity bias.
This report is divided into five parts. Chapter 2 builds a housing sector model including housing supply and demand market and other factor markets. Chapter 3 estimates and tests the specified model. Chatper 4 analyzes the structure of Korean housing sector and makes impact analyses of various housing policies and socio-economic conditions using the model. In chapter 5, we evaluate housing policies based on the results and propose some policy implications. The results are summarized as follows:
First, money supply has an important effect on both housing supply and housing demand. This result proves that the composite goods of housing is the object of investment as well as of residence.
Second the reulated housing price system has much greater impact on housing supply than sale prices because housing constructors directly react to the regulated price.
Third, the supply and demand of housing finance have depended on housing finance policies rather than housing business cycles. Land market has been also under the control of housing and land policies. But labor market has been relatively left to the market mechanism.
Fourth, it appears tha the shortage of housing finance has influenced both housing supply and housing demand, and the lack of land supply has reduced housing supply.
Fifth, based on the result of policy impact analyses, housing price system linked with production cost has increased housing supply and stabilized housing market.
Sixth, a alrge amount of land supply has caused an increase in the housing supply with two years of time-lag.
Finally, we can derive some policy implications from these results as follows: Housing price system uniformly regulated has shrinked housing market, but improved housing price system linked with the cost has helped to stabilize housing market. One can conjecture that it is desirable to introduce the new housing price system reflecting housing sale price before the overall dregulation of housing price system in order to minimize its side effects. The instability in housing market has been mostly due to the restriction of housing production factor makets. Therefore, ahrmonious adjustment of deman and supply of housing production factors such as housing finance, land and labor is necessary to stabilize and to energize housing market.
- 주택시장모형 연구(A study on the housing market model)
- 손경환; 김혜승
주택시장모형 연구(A study on the housing market model)
주택시장 및 주택생산요소시장(Housing market and production factor market)
경기도 : 국토개발연구원
|Series Title; No||국토연 / 94-28|
|Subject Country||South Korea(Asia and Pacific)|
|Subject||Territorial Development < General|