The government has attempted to stabilize housing market, and it may be stabilized in the long run, but it has been unstable for quite a while and the housing policies seemed to be improper in adpating to changing market environemt. There has been no systematic tool for short-term analysis of the market. Here, a macroeconomic model is proposed as a practical and effective tool to study behavior of the housing sector.
The model is based on the disequilibrium hypothesis with partial adjustment procedure. Partial adjustment procedure assumes that the realized level is a part of desired level and the difference is adjusted partially through adjustment coefficient with time lag. Housing sector model as proposed in this study consists of 5 behavioral equations and 1 identity.
Both OLS and 3SLS are used for estimating the parameters. The 3SLS method does not improve the results significantly.
The results are summarized as follows;
First, the price is very sensitive to money supply and price expectation, both of which are explanatory factors of ivestment demand, but not to change in income which is assumed to affect residential deman. The supply of housing turns out to be an important determianat. Second, housing construction is susbtantially affected by the economic cycle, and to a lestt extent, by construction cost. It may suggest that constructors in Korea are less concerned with unit profit, and more with effective demand. Third, the estimated demand fuction shows that only 35% of the gap between desired demand at t period and the realized demand at t-1 period is filled at t period, implying that the supply does not follow up with the changes in demand efficiently.
The sutdy results suggest that we ought to consider both demand and supply sides simultaneously in order to stabilize housing market. In the short run speculation expection need to be strongly supressed.
- 주택시장분석을 위한 거시경제모형연구
주택시장분석을 위한 거시경제모형연구
서울 : 국토개발연구원
|Series Title; No||국토연 / 91-14|
|Subject Country||South Korea(Asia and Pacific)|
|Subject||Territorial Development < General|