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A structural analysis for forecasting Korea's export quantity

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  • A structural analysis for forecasting Korea's export quantity
  • Lee, Sang-ho; Song, Soo-sup
  • The Korean Economic Association


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Title A structural analysis for forecasting Korea's export quantity
Similar Titles
Material Type Articles
Author(English)

Lee, Sang-ho; Song, Soo-sup

Publisher

[Seoul]:The Korean Economic Association

Date 1999
Journal Title; Vol./Issue The Korean Economic Review:vol. 15(no. 2)
Pages 14
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language English
File Type Link
Subject Economy < Trade
Holding The Korean Economic Association

Abstract

Export functions have been empirically estimated by many researchers in order to measure price and income elasticities, which are then used in forming various economic policy measures. However, since the model specification of these researches has not included the exchange risk variable, the estimation results can not be said to represent the real behavioral pattern of exporters. This paper tries to rectify this inappropriateness by explicitly including the exchange risk variable in the estimation process. Estimation result shows that exchange risk affects Korea's export quantity significantly along with those variables such as export unit prices, importing country's income level, etc. In addition, the short-run model with error correction term provided more accurate forecast for the Korean export quantity than the long-run equilibrium model.