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재정위험 측정 및 관리에 관한 연구(A study on fiscal risks in Korea)

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  • 재정위험 측정 및 관리에 관한 연구(A study on fiscal risks in Korea)
  • 박형수; 전병목; 박상원; 박기백; 김현아; 이창용; 이항용
  • 한국조세연구원


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Title 재정위험 측정 및 관리에 관한 연구(A study on fiscal risks in Korea)
Similar Titles
Material Type Reports
Author(Korean)

박형수; 전병목; 박상원; 박기백; 김현아; 이창용; 이항용

Publisher

서울 : 한국조세연구원

Date 2007-12
Pages 457
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language Korean
File Type Link
Subject Economy < Economic Administration
Holding 한국조세연구원
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Abstract

The analysis and management of government exposure to fiscal risks have two dimensions : the macro-fiscal context and specific fiscal risks. We apply internationally standard analysis of fiscal risks to Korea.
The macro-fiscal context of government exposure to fiscal risks related to its capacity to absorb financial pressures that it may realize in the future. This study adopts Hemming & Petrie(2000)'s four macro-fiscal aspects of vulnerability - ① incorrect specification of the initial fiscal position, ② sensitivity of short-term fiscal outcomes to risk, ③ threats to longer-term fiscal sustainability, ④ structural or institutional weaknesses affecting the design and implementation of fiscal policy. Chapter 3 analyzes each aspect of these vulnerabilities in Korea.
In addition to the macro-fiscal context, there are various specific fiscal risks such as state guarantees, state insurance schemes, default of a subnational government or public entity on nonguaranteed debt/obligation, implicit liability of social security schemes, future recurrent costs of public investment projects. Chapter 4 to 7 analyze and measure the size of these specific fiscal risks according to the following Polackova(1998)'s fiscal risk matrix.