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출산율 제고와 성장잠재력 확충을 위한 조세, 재정정책(The effects of pronatal policies on fertility, labor supply, and marriage of Korean women) : 장기적 인적자본 형성을 위한 조세, 재정정책

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  • 출산율 제고와 성장잠재력 확충을 위한 조세, 재정정책(The effects of pronatal policies on fertility, labor supply, and marriage of Korean women)
  • 우석진; 민희철
  • 한국조세연구원


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Title 출산율 제고와 성장잠재력 확충을 위한 조세, 재정정책(The effects of pronatal policies on fertility, labor supply, and marriage of Korean women)
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Sub Title

장기적 인적자본 형성을 위한 조세, 재정정책

Material Type Reports
Author(Korean)

우석진; 민희철

Publisher

서울:한국조세연구원

Date 2007-12
Pages 173
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language Korean
File Type Link
Subject Economy < Economic Administration
Social Development < Population
Holding 한국조세연구원

Abstract

This report comes out of the second half of the two-year research project on "Fiscal Policies for the Accumulation of Human capital in Korea: An Economic Analysis on Fertility". This study investigates the effect of pro-natal policies on childbirth, labor supply, marriage, and the accumulation of human capital, based on the first-year report which analyzed the socio-economic factors that determines women's birth and labor supply decisions. We estimated a dynamic structural model of birth, labor supply, and marriage. And the estimated parameters were utilized for counter-factual experiments on various government policies. The empirical result shows that providing leave, whether paid or not, has a limited impact on childbirth decisions while the incentive for women to participate in a labor market becomes weak. Subsidies to childcare are expected to promote both birth and labor supply, but only by a limited degree with relatively large fiscal expenditure. The effect of cash transfers, such as child tax credit, is large compared to other policies, but universal transfer has a shortcoming that it may impede labor supply in the long term. Restricted only to working women, cash transfer encourages the long-term accumulation of human capital, while posing equity concerns. Lastly we evaluated two alternative changes to the current pro-natal policy: (1) expanding graded childcare support, (2) introducing child allowance with the current graded childcare support. According the result, expanding graded childcare support is more effective.