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장기재정에 대한 건강보험의 잠재부담 분석(An analysis of the latent burden imposed on long-run government finances by the National Health Insurance)

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  • 장기재정에 대한 건강보험의 잠재부담 분석(An analysis of the latent burden imposed on long-run government finances by the National Health Insurance)
  • 김종면
  • 한국조세연구원


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Title 장기재정에 대한 건강보험의 잠재부담 분석(An analysis of the latent burden imposed on long-run government finances by the National Health Insurance)
Similar Titles
Material Type Reports
Author(Korean)

김종면

Publisher

서울:한국조세연구원

Date 2002-12
Pages 116
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language Korean
File Type Link
Subject Economy < Economic Administration
Social Development < Health
Holding 한국조세연구원

Abstract

This report offers the first long-run analysis, if at a rudimentary level, of the fiscal burden on the government arising out of the National Health Insurance (NHI). Forecasting the long-run trajectory of the NHI's financial viability using a straightforward, conventional approach is an exercise fraught with almost insurmountable difficulties. Aside from the usual problems of insufficient data and absence of theories or models to guide attempts at forward projections, the NHI system has recently been undergoing important changes, which are expected to continue for some time. The report circumvents such obstacles by taking an alternative approach that relies on macro-level variables to obtain long-term projections, trading off some of the precision that would be required for a forecast over a shorter duration or one that NHI authorities would rely on for finer details.
Summarizing the results, the NHI will continue to impose a significant burden on government finances even should the "Comprehensive 5-year Plan to Stabilize NHI Finances" successfully accomplish its goal of eliminating the cumulative NHI deficit and restoring NHI finances to balance. Two factors mainly account for this result. First, barring continual raises in the premium rate, NHI revenues from insurance premiums can only grow at the same speed as GDP since the nature of NHI premium assessment is basically identical to a flat income tax system. In contrast, NHI expenditure growth has almost without exception outpaced GDP growth, making for a systemic tendency to incur deficits. Second, article 15 of the Special Act to Stabilize National Health Insurance Finances, adopted on February 19, 2002, stipulates that 50% of the NHI's Regional Insurance expenditures shall be subsidized by the state. Consequently, government support to the NHI will continue to increase even if the NHI achieves and stays in financial balance. (The rest omitted)