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사회보장발전의 중장기 전망과 방향(Social security development in Korea) : 사회보장지출 및 부담급여 형평성 분석을 중심으로(Mid- and long-term outlook and policy direction)

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  • 사회보장발전의 중장기 전망과 방향(Social security development in Korea)
  • 백화종
  • 한국보건사회연구원


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Title 사회보장발전의 중장기 전망과 방향(Social security development in Korea)
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Sub Title

사회보장지출 및 부담급여 형평성 분석을 중심으로(Mid- and long-term outlook and policy direction)

Material Type Reports
Author(Korean)

백화종

Publisher

서울:한국보건사회연구원

Date 2003-12
Series Title; No 연구 / 2003-07
Pages 228
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language Korean
File Type Link
Subject Social Development < Social Welfare
Holding 한국보건사회연구원

Abstract

In the 21st century, the competition among the nations in the world is growing with increasing globalization and regionalization. These changes have markedly influenced Korea's socioeconomic environment, industrial structure, labor market arena, demographic landscape, and family structure, and, in turn, led to increasing demand for social welfare programs. Thus, now is the time to examine if and how Korea's social security system can meet these changes and be sustainable. This study focuses on three issues of Korea's social security system: social expenditure, intra- and inter-generational redistribution, and the deficiency of current social security system. As for social expenditure, a panel data of 16 OECD countries was used to predict Korea's future social spending based on regression analysis of SOCX data. Cluster analysis was employed to reflect the socio-cultural differences imbedded in social expenditures but not captured by quantitative variables.
The findings are as follows. First, Korea's social expenditure is expected to be 14.7% of GDP in 2015, 14.8% in 2019, and 14.9% in 2027, depending on when the country achieves a per capita GDP of $20,000. Second, along with changes in demographic structure, the Gini index of disposable income will decrease from 0.3859 in 2000 to 0.3843 in 2020, and to 0.3666 in 2040, if the current social security system is maintained. When changes are made to the structure of social security programs, health insurance, and public assistance, the Gini index in 2020 and in 2040 will further decrease to 0.3829 and 0.3661, respectively. Third, to increase the sustainability of pension and health insurance schemes, policy measures should be taken with a view to balancing benefits and contributions.