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Drone warfare on the Korean peninsula : Paradigm shift or paradigm risk?

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  • Drone warfare on the Korean peninsula
  • Jackson, Van
  • Korea Economic Institute of America


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Title Drone warfare on the Korean peninsula
Similar Titles
Sub Title

Paradigm shift or paradigm risk?

Material Type Reports
Author(English)

Jackson, Van

Publisher

Washington, DC:Korea Economic Institute of America

Date 2014-10
Series Title; No Academic Paper Series
Pages 9
Subject Country North Korea(Asia and Pacific)
South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language English
File Type Link
Subject Government and Law < National security
Government and Law < International Politics
Holding KEI

Abstract

On several occasions since 2013, crashed North Korean drones have been discovered in strategically significant areas in South Korea. Do North Korean drones represent a threat to Korean security? How is North Korea likely to use drones against South Korea and why? To answer these questions, this paper develops a framework that explains when violent drone-based provocations are more or less likely to occur by drawing on the logic of reputation and the historical pattern of North Korean coercion. It argues that North Korean drones are no cause for panic, but are a potential threat. The paper proposes that drone-based provocations are more likely when: 1) its relations with the United States and South Korea are openly hostile, and 2) the alliance has either a recent history of restraint when challenged with coercion or a recent history of bluffing when challenged. (The rest omitted)