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The (non) Impact of UN sanctions on North Korea

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  • The (non) Impact of UN sanctions on North Korea
  • Noland, Marcus
  • East-West Center


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Title The (non) Impact of UN sanctions on North Korea
Similar Titles
Material Type Reports
Author(English)

Noland, Marcus

Publisher

Honolulu:East-West Center

Date 2009-02
Series Title; No East-West Center Working Papers; Economics Series / 98
Pages 12
Subject Country North Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language English
File Type Link
Subject Economy < Economic Administration
Government and Law < International Politics
Holding East-West Center

Abstract

This study finds that North Korea's nuclear test and the imposition of UN Security Council sanctions have had no perceptible effect on trade with its two largest partners, China and South Korea. Before North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test, it was widely believed that such an event would have cataclysmic diplomatic ramifications. However, beginning with visual inspection of data and ending with time-series models, no evidence is found to support the notion that these events have had any effect on North Korea's trade with its two principal partners.
In retrospect, North Korea may have calculated quite correctly that the direct penalties for establishing itself as a nuclear power would be modest (or, alternatively, put such a high value on demonstrating its nuclear capability that it outweighed the downside risks however large). If sanctions are to deter behavior in the future, they will have to be much more enthusiastically implemented.