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인구구조 변화에 따른 조세수입 전망과 사회복지 지출부담 분석(The impact of an ageing population on the personal income tax revenue in Korea) : A dynamic microsimulation approach

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  • 인구구조 변화에 따른 조세수입 전망과 사회복지 지출부담 분석(The impact of an ageing population on the personal income tax revenue in Korea)
  • 고제이; 권혁진
  • 한국보건사회연구원


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Title 인구구조 변화에 따른 조세수입 전망과 사회복지 지출부담 분석(The impact of an ageing population on the personal income tax revenue in Korea)
Similar Titles
Sub Title

A dynamic microsimulation approach

Material Type Reports
Author(Korean)

고제이; 권혁진

Publisher

세종:한국보건사회연구원

Date 2014-12
Journal Title; Vol./Issue 연구보고서:2014-22-7-2
ISBN 978-89-6827-187-8
Pages 148
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language Korean
File Type Link
Subject Economy < Economic Administration
Social Development < Population
Holding 한국보건사회연구원

Abstract

According to the Statistics Korea, Korea’s working age population will peak at 37 million in 2016 and will drop sharply thereafter. This drastic change in demographical structure raises serious policy concerns, as social expenditures including pension and long-term health care costs are expected to rise while the size of government revenues decreases. Notwithstanding the explosive growth of social spending, the outcome of welfare programs is still disappointing. This casts doubts on the effectiveness of the welfare system as a whole and calls for a more systematic analysis of social expenditures. This study aims to develop a dynamic micro-simulation model for tax and welfare policy analysis, whereby the fiscal and distributional impact of a certain policy reform will be examined. We narrowed down our research focus to the effect of population aging on the composition of old-age income and personal income tax revenue. (The rest omitted)