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여름철 계절내 진동 예측 시스템 개선 (Ⅱ) (Improvement of real-time forecast system on the BSISO (Ⅱ)) : 다중모델앙상블 예보 (Multi-model ensemble forecast)

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  • 여름철 계절내 진동 예측 시스템 개선 (Ⅱ) (Improvement of real-time forecast system on the BSISO (Ⅱ))
  • Kim, Haejung김해정
  • APCC


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Title 여름철 계절내 진동 예측 시스템 개선 (Ⅱ) (Improvement of real-time forecast system on the BSISO (Ⅱ))
Similar Titles
Sub Title

다중모델앙상블 예보 (Multi-model ensemble forecast)

Material Type Reports
Author(English)

Kim, Haejung

Author(Korean)

김해정

Publisher

Busan:APCC

Date 2015
Series Title; No 연구보고서 / 2015-12
Subject Country South Korea(Asia and Pacific)
Language English
File Type Link
Subject Industry and Technology < Others
Territorial Development < Environment
Holding APCC

Abstract

The objectives of this study are to improve BSISO forecast skill by developing MME method and to provide more updated BSISO information by setting up a stable operation system. Regarding the development of BSISO MME method, the Simple Composite Method (SCM), Simple Linear Regression Method (SLR), and Multiple Linear Regression Method (MLR) are used as linear methods, while the Genetic Algorithm (GA) is utilized as the non-linear method. Four operation models are used when applying the MME method. The number of available forecast samples was 46 days with a 151 day data window. Pattern correlation, Hit Rate, False Alarm Rate, and Bivariate Correlation methods were used to verify anomaly fields and BSISO indices. The MME performance in predicting the BSISO varies with the methodology. BSISO MME indices are able to be well predicted with a 1 week to 2 week forecast lead time. (The rest omitted)