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Myanmar: Economic trends and policy issues

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Frame of Image ate for reform • Capacity development and huge physical infrastructure needs 4 Reforms Underway • Reforms at all levels improving governance and efficiency, and policy frameworks, for example: • Opened up economy • Foreign exchange liberalization • Financial sector liberalization • Public Financial Management 5 Pre Pandemic Economic Situation • Relatively stable macroeconomic situation with prudent fiscal and monetary policies – low risk of debt distress • Growth was moderating to around 6 percent – but below potential • Garment exports doing well bolstering the external position and rural economy seemed resilient • BUT • Lower investment with weaker FDI • Rising financial sector vulnerabilities with overhang from real estate boom • AML greylisting issue 6 Economic Impact of the Pandemic • Now the situation has changed dramatically • Good news is that there has been limited domestic spread • 361 cases and 6 deaths by mid August • But Myanmar is being hit by major demand and supply shocks and dislocation at the global and domestic levels 7 Small Number of Cases 8 But Limited Testing 9 Impact • Many uncertainties – look at baseline and adverse scenarios • GDP: growth will fall as key drivers slow or decline • Fiscal: deficit to rise as revenues fall with higher expenditure requirements 10 Negative Economic Trends 11 Growth Implications 12 Revenues Hit 13 Poverty Gains At Risk 14 Policy Responses • The Government’s Covid-19 Economic Relief Plan (CERP) enacted in April 2020 focus


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Title Myanmar: Economic trends and policy issues
Similar Titles
Material Type Report
Author(English)

Neil Saker

Publisher

International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Date 2020-08
Event Workshop on ASEAN-India macroeconomic policy and development cooperation
Subject Country Myanmar(Asia and Pacific)
Language English
File Type Documents
Original Format pdf
Subject Economy < Macroeconomics
Holding KDI School of Public Policy and Management
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