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Myanmar: Economic trends and policy issues

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Frame of Image ate for reform • Capacity development and huge physical infrastructure needs
4
Reforms Underway
• Reforms at all levels improving governance and efficiency, and policy frameworks, for example: • Opened up economy • Foreign exchange liberalization • Financial sector liberalization • Public Financial Management
5
Pre Pandemic Economic Situation
• Relatively stable macroeconomic situation with prudent fiscal and monetary policies – low risk of debt distress • Growth was moderating to around 6 percent – but below potential • Garment exports doing well bolstering the external position and rural economy seemed resilient • BUT • Lower investment with weaker FDI • Rising financial sector vulnerabilities with overhang from real estate boom • AML greylisting issue
6
Economic Impact of the Pandemic
• Now the situation has changed dramatically • Good news is that there has been limited domestic spread • 361 cases and 6 deaths by mid August • But Myanmar is being hit by major demand and supply shocks and dislocation at the global and domestic levels
7
Small Number of Cases
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But Limited Testing
9
Impact
• Many uncertainties – look at baseline and adverse scenarios • GDP: growth will fall as key drivers slow or decline • Fiscal: deficit to rise as revenues fall with higher expenditure requirements
10
Negative Economic Trends
11
Growth Implications
12
Revenues Hit
13
Poverty Gains At Risk
14
Policy Responses
• The Government’s Covid-19 Economic Relief Plan (CERP) enacted in April 2020 focus


Full Text
Title Myanmar: Economic trends and policy issues
Similar Titles
Material Type Report
Author(English)

Neil Saker

Publisher

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date 2020-08
Event Workshop on ASEAN-India macroeconomic policy and development cooperation
Subject Country Myanmar(Asia and Pacific)
Language English
File Type Documents
Original Format pdf
Subject Economy < Macroeconomics
Holding KDI School of Public Policy and Management
License