구조적 재정수지를 이용한 우리나라의 재정정책 평가(Evaluation of Korea’s fiscal policy using structural fiscal balance)

Based on structural fiscal balances, this study evaluates whether the government’s discretionary fiscal policy has been suitable for changing economic conditions and then examines the key factors affecting the structural fiscal balance. This study estimates the structural fiscal balance in various ways that all delivered similar results, meaning that the uncertainty arising from the estimation of the structural fiscal balance is not very high. The evaluation of whether the fiscal policy stance was set properly in response to economic fluctuations showed that the authority’s discretionary fiscal policy responded in an expansionary manner at the time of an economic downturn and in a tightening manner during an economic boom. Furthermore, these fiscal responses are found to be mainly attributable to the expenditure aspect. Meanwhile, from the perspective of cyclical neutral balance, the automatic fiscal stabilizer has not played its function sufficiently in response to changes in economic conditions. (The rest omitted)