구조변화를 고려한 세수추계 개선방안 모색(Tax revenue forecasts with possible structural changes)

During the past three consecutive years, over-estimations in forecasts of tax revenue have led to revenue shortfalls. These developments have motivated this study, which examines the current practices in tax revenue forecasting and the existing literature, and conducts tests for the presence of possible structural changes in tax revenue and other relevant time series. We then comparatively evaluate the performance of each forecasting model to select the best- performing models by tax item, using these to make 5-year forecasts for the revenues of the national tax and other key tax items. (The rest omitted)