사회보장 재정추계 방법론 개발을 위한 기초연구(A study on methodology development of long-term projection of social expenditure)

Long-term projection of social expenditure could reveal many information on developmental stages of social security system. The absolute level and relative level of expenditure could imply quantitative and qualitative aspects of social security system. Despite the importance of long-term projection of social expenditure, there has never been attempt to establish consensus on projection methodologies. There have been many attempts to produce long-term projection of social expenditure in aggregate or in individual programs. However, all these outputs propose different assumptions on range of social security system, macro variables, and micro variables defining each programs. As a result, each projection produces different results and causes confusion in interpreting the results. This study is the first attempt to establish a single standard on methodology of long-term projection of social expenditures. This study does not stop at just establishing unified methodology but to propose tools for evaluating levels, composition and growth pattern of social expenditure.